1. 理清客户层面大订单优势网运政策的跨渠道效应

原标题：Disentangling the Customer-Level, Cross-Channel Effects of Large-Order-Advantaged Online Shipping Policies

期刊：MIS Quarterly

作者：Vamsi K. Kanuri. Andrew T. Crecelius, Subodha Kumar

出版时间：2025-01-17

DOI：10.25300/MISQ/2024/18438

摘要：

电商零售业面临的一个关键挑战是确定一项能够激励更多在线订单和销售的运费政策。为了实现这一点，零售商偶尔会改变运输政策。虽然信息系统研究广泛研究了电商渠道策略及其与线下渠道的相互作用，但尚未探索电商航运政策变化的线上和线下影响。在此背景下，我们研究了一项旨在激励更高美元订单的运输政策变化，具体而言，一家大型多渠道零售商从分层在线运输政策转向统一费率政策。利用丰富的客户层面面板数据和时间上的回归间断方法，我们证明了一个统一的费用在线运输政策，与直觉相反，将销售从在线渠道转移到了线下渠道，在五个州的21028名客户中产生了23%的线下销售。来自其他分析的证据证实了一个基于两种机制的账户：在线订单聚合效应，其中固定费用配送鼓励运费敏感的购物者将购买聚合为更大的订单，以及线下门店间购买效应，其中订单聚合产生更长的间购买期，在此期间，客户通过访问线下门店来满足他们对较小购买的需求。因此，统一费率的航运政策可以作为推动多渠道行为的意外杠杆。这些发现有助于信息系统研究中的电子商务渠道互动文献，并对寻求利用实体投资抵御Amazon.com等公司的传统零售商具有重要意义。

Abstract: 

A key challenge in e-commerce retail is identifying a ship** fee policy that incentivizes more online orders and sales. To achieve this, retailers occasionally alter their ship** policies. While information systems research has extensively examined e-commerce channel strategies and their interplay with offline channels, it has yet to explore the online and offline implications of changes in e-commerce ship** policy. Against this backdrop, we study a ship** policy change designed to incentivize higher-dollar orders, specifically, a large multichannel retailer’s shift from a tiered online ship** policy to a flat-rate policy. Integrating the multichannel evaluation framework with a behavioral shock perspective, we theorize multiple potential outcomes of the retailer’s move to a flat-rate ship** policy. Using rich customer-level panel data and a regression discontinuity in time approach, we demonstrate that a flat-fee online ship** policy, counterintuitively, shifts sales away from the online channel and towards the offline channel—generating~ $526,000/month in new offline sales from previously online-only customers in five states. Evidence from additional analyses corroborates an order aggregation account, wherein flat-fee ship** encourages aggregation of planned purchases into larger orders to take advantage of the flat-rate ship** fee; yet this generates longer interpurchase periods, during which customers meet their needs for smaller purchases by visiting the offline store. Thus, a flat-rate ship** policy can serve as an unexpected lever for driving multichannel behavior. These findings contribute to the e-commerce channel interplay literature within information systems research and have important implications for legacy retailers seeking to leverage their brick-and-mortar investments to fend off the likes of Amazon. com.

2. 按需服务平台合并对消费者剩余和劳动福利的影响

原标题：Mergers Between On-Demand Service Platforms: The Impact on Consumer Surplus and Labor Welfare

期刊：Information Systems Research

作者：Xiaogang Lin, Tao Lu, Xin Wang, Gang Kou

出版时间：2025-01-31

DOI：10.1287/isre.2022.0553

摘要：

按需服务平台通过竞争性地设定服务价格和工资，将客户与独立服务提供商（代理人）连接起来。点播服务平台之间的合并最近变得普遍，引发了反垄断辩论。合并虽然减少了竞争，但使之前独立平台上的代理能够服务所有客户。本文建立博弈论模型，分析两大平台合并的影响。这两个平台在合并前在价格和工资上竞争，但合并后由一家公司管理。我们发现，并购不仅创造了联营收益，还增强了跨端网络效应（即客户受益于更多代理，反之亦然）。因此，可能会带来双赢的结果，合并后平台的利润、消费者剩余、劳动福利都会改善。如果premerger市场不那么饱和，或者如果市场在客户/代理端更加分化，那么双赢的结果更有可能出现。有趣的是，更强的内端拥挤效应可能会增强或削弱合并惠及客户的潜力。此外，我们还表明，如果市场上有更多的多归宿代理人，合并改善消费者剩余和劳动福利的可能性较小，如果跨端价格透明度较低，合并更有可能使劳动福利受益。我们的结果为反垄断政策制定者评估按需服务平台之间合并的影响提供了指导。

Abstract: 

On-demand service platforms connect customers with independent service providers (agents) by competitively setting service prices and wages. Mergers between on-demand service platforms have recently become prevalent, resulting in antitrust debates. A merger, although reducing competition, enables the agents on previously separate platforms to serve all the customers. In this paper, we develop a game-theoretical model to analyze the impact of a merger between two platforms. The two platforms compete on prices and wages before the merger, but are managed by a single firm after the merger. We show that a merger not only creates pooling benefits, but also enhances the cross-side network effect (i.e., customers benefit from more agents and vice versa). As a result, it can lead to a win-win-win outcome, where the platforms’ profits, consumer surplus, and labor welfare all improve after a merger. The win-win-win outcome is more probable if the premerger market is less saturated or if the market is more differentiated on the customer/agent side. Interestingly, a stronger within-side congestion effect may either strengthen or weaken a merger’s potential to benefit customers. Additionally, we show that a merger is less likely to improve consumer surplus and labor welfare if there are more multihoming agents in the market and that it is more likely to benefit labor welfare if there is less cross-side price transparency. Our results provide guidelines for antitrust policymakers to evaluate the impact of a merger between on-demand service platforms.

3. 产品多样性带来的收益：来自大型数字平台的证据

原标题：Gains from Product Variety: Evidence from a Large Digital Platform

期刊：Information Systems Research

作者：Erik Brynjolfsson, Long Chen, Xijie Gao

出版时间：2025-02-06

DOI：10.1287/isre.2023.0410

摘要：

数字平台可以通过促进新产品的发现和可用性，增加产品种类和消费者选择。在本文中，我们记录了中国最大的数字平台上新产品的大规模增长，并量化了对消费者的福利影响。使用2015年和2019年三大类图书的销售数据，我们发现产品标题的数量几乎翻了一番，而价格有所下降。新产品大多是小众产品，销售给品味异常的消费者。我们估计，这些利基产品的需求比大众产品的非弹性高出20%以上。将需求弹性估计嵌入一个两段不变替代弹性框架，我们发现增加品种带来的收益大于2019年的账面总支出，约为较低价格带来的收益的40倍。与不区分大众产品和利基产品的现有方法相比，这一福利收益高出30%。我们的结果既突显了产品种类的大幅增加，也突显了考虑不同产品价格弹性差异的重要性。我们还考察了品种收益的地域差异，发现农村和低收入地区的消费者从数字平台获得了更大的收益。

Abstract: 

Digital platforms can increase product variety and consumer choice by facilitating the discovery and availability of new products. In this paper, we document the massive growth of new products on the largest digital platform in China and quantify the welfare implications for consumers. Using sales data on three categories of books from 2015 and 2019, we find that the number of product titles almost doubles, whereas prices fall somewhat. Most of the new products are niche products sold to consumers with unusual tastes. We estimate that demand for these niche products is more than 20% more inelastic than that of mass products. Embedding the estimates of demand elasticity into a two-segment constant elasticity of substitution framework, we find the gain from increased variety is more than the total expenditure on books in 2019 and about 40 times larger than the gain from lower prices. This welfare gain is 30% higher compared with the existing approach that does not distinguish mass and niche products. Our results highlight both the massive increase in product variety and the importance of accounting for differences in price elasticity across products. We also examine the geographic variation in gains from variety and find that consumers in rural and low-income regions enjoy larger gains from the digital platform.

4. 长滞后与大回报：广告对企业的实验证据

原标题：Long Lags and Large Returns: Experimental Evidence from Advertising to Businesses

期刊：Management Science

作者：Michael Thomas, Marcel Goic, Kirthi Kalyanam

出版时间：2025-02-12

DOI：10.1287/mnsc.2023.02661

摘要：

通过一项多年的实验，我们发现面向企业的广告可以产生与观察到的针对消费者的截然不同的反应。首先，我们估计的广告回报比通常为消费者发现的更大：广告支出回报为12.0（95%CI:4.8-24.5）。其次，我们估计广告交付和购买之间的滞后时间更长：第一次购买1-5个月，重复购买5-12个月或更长。第三，我们发现现有业务客户对广告带来的大部分收入提升负有责任，尽管这似乎是由购买新零件的现有业务客户推动的。此外，我们的结果表明，基于地理的切换实验可以随机分配治疗间隔时间，为估计滞后效应提供有效手段。在这项研究中，我们对半导体制造商提供的电子元件的数字显示广告投放进行了随机分组；几乎所有电子产品都需要这种组件。

Abstract: 

Using a multiyear experiment, we show that advertising to businesses can generate very different responses than has been observed for consumers. First, we estimate larger advertising returns than typically found for consumers: a return on ad spend of 12.0 (95% CI: 4.8–24.5). Second, we estimate longer lags between ad delivery and purchase: 1–5 months for first-time purchases and 5–12 months or longer for repeat purchases. Third, we find that existing business customers are responsible for most of the revenue lift from advertising, though this appears to be driven by existing business customers purchasing new parts. Additionally, our results demonstrate that geography-based switchback experiments that randomize the time between treatments can provide an effective means of estimating lagged effects. For this study we randomized the delivery of digital display ads for electronic components offered by a semiconductor manufacturer; nearly all electronic products require such components.

5. 企业经营现金流结构模型及其应用

原标题：A Structural Model of a Firm’s Operating Cash Flow with Applications

期刊：Management Science

作者：Kashish Arora, Vishal Gaur

出版时间：2025-02-12

DOI：10.1287/mnsc.2021.03790

摘要：

有效管理公司的经营现金流对于支持增长、偿还债务和维持整体财务健康至关重要。现金流管理不善可能导致严重的流动性挑战，甚至业务失败。然而，经营性现金流管理是复杂的，因为其与销售、经营成本、库存、应付账款等经营变量之间复杂的内生关系，以及外部宏观经济因素对企业的影响。在本文中，我们提出了一个经营现金流的结构模型，该模型解开了这种内生性，允许我们估计这些变量之间的因果关系，并为评估现金流管理政策提供了一个有价值的工具。将我们的模型应用于标普Compustat数据库1990年至2020年的季度财务数据以及宏观经济指标，我们用其他操作变量提供了现金流内生性质的经验证据。然后，我们通过（i）识别结构性冲击的特征以及它们在系统内引发的新均衡，展示了我们模型的实用价值；（ii）提供评估替代管理行动或政策决定以应对这些冲击的工具；（三）预测全球衰退、经济情绪波动等宏观经济事件对公司业绩的影响；（iv）与传统单变量模型相比，显示出优越的预测性能。总之，我们的经营现金流结构模型增强了我们对其动态的理解，使企业能够更好地进行知情决策和更有效的现金流管理。

Abstract: 

Effective management of a firm’s operating cash flow is essential for supporting growth, servicing debt, and maintaining overall financial health. Mismanagement of cash flows can result in severe liquidity challenges and even business failure. However, managing operating cash flow is complex because of its intricate, endogenous relationships with operational variables, like sales, operating costs, inventory, payables, and the impact of exogenous macroeconomic factors on a firm. In this paper, we present a structural model of operating cash flow that untangles this endogeneity, allows us to estimate causal relationships among these variables, and provides a valuable tool for evaluating cash flow management policies. Applying our model to quarterly financial data from S&P’s Compustat database spanning from 1990 to 2020 along with macroeconomic indicators, we provide empirical evidence of the endogenous nature of cash flow with other operational variables. We then showcase the practical value of our model by (i) identifying the characteristics of structural shocks and the new equilibria they induce within the system; (ii) offering a tool for evaluating alternative managerial actions or policy decisions to counteract these shocks; (iii) predicting the impacts of macroeconomic events, such as global recessions and fluctuations in economic sentiment, on firm performance; and (iv) demonstrating superior forecasting performance compared with traditional univariate models. In summary, our structural model of operating cash flow enhances our understanding of its dynamics, enabling better-informed decision making and more effective cash flow management in firms.

6. 产品搜索中的战略疏忽

原标题：Strategic Inattention in Product Search

期刊：Management Science

作者：Adrian Hillenbr, Svenja Hippel

出版时间：2025-02-14

DOI：10.1287/mnsc.2022.03413

摘要：

网络市场的快速技术发展从根本上改变了消费者和卖家之间的关系。在线平台可以轻松收集消费者搜索行为的数据，允许价格歧视。因此，产品搜索成为一种战略选择。消费者面临着一个权衡：强烈搜索并以可能更高的价格获得更好的契合度，或限制搜索行为，策略上漫不经心，获得更差的契合度，但可能是更好的交易。我们从理论和实验上研究了由此产生的战略买卖互动。我们的实验结果为通过在线平台的崛起为消费者带来的附加值以及当前监管的有效性提供了批判性的启示。

Abstract: 

Rapid technological developments in online markets fundamentally change the relationship between consumers and sellers. Online platforms can easily gather data about consumers’ search behavior, allowing for price discrimination. Therefore, product search becomes a strategic choice. Consumers face a tradeoff: Search intensely and receive a better fit at a potentially higher price or restrict search behavior, be strategically inattentive, and receive a worse fit but maybe a better deal. We study the resulting strategic buyer-seller interaction theoretically and experimentally. Our experimental results shed a critical light on the added value for consumers through the rise of online platforms and on the effectiveness of current regulations.

7. 填补空心：技术变革中外包核心组件时企业知识的作用

原标题：To Fill a Hollow Core: Roles of Firm Knowledge When Outsourcing Core Component During Technological Change

期刊：Journal of Operations Management

作者：Woo-Yong Park, Faisal Khurshid, Chanchai Tangpong

出版时间：2025-02-17

DOI：10.1002/joom.1349

摘要：

创新文献的特点是，对于企业知识积累在外包核心组件方面的作用，存在逆向观点。为了调和这些观点，我们借鉴了企业行为理论和技术进化文献，假设企业的局部搜索是企业积累的知识影响其产品绩效的机制。企业的内部知识可能会让他们暴露在累积的知识陷阱中，因为企业积累的知识往往会升级其局部搜索，以寻求新技术挑战的解决方案，但局部搜索对业绩的影响不太可能实现。我们认为，与主导技术出现后相比，企业积累的知识可以使其更容易在领先者之前积累知识陷阱。我们进一步假设，在主导技术出现之前，先前的探索经验和供应商的外包零部件知识可以降低企业对这种知识陷阱的易感性，但在主导技术出现之后，它们的调节作用逐渐消失。来自美国混合动力电动汽车传动系市场的数据支持我们的假设。我们的发现丰富了当前关于企业行为理论和技术演化的文献，同时调和了创新文献中的逆向观点。

Abstract: 

The innovation literature has been marked by contrarian views regarding the roles of firms' knowledge accumulation with regards to outsourced core components. To reconcile these views, we draw on the behavioral theory of the firm and the technological evolution literature in hypothesizing firms' local search as a mechanism by which firms' accumulated knowledge affects their product performance. Firms' in-house knowledge can expose them to an accumulated knowledge trap, as firms' accumulated knowledge tends to escalate their local search for a solution to a new technological challenge, but the impact of the local search on performance is unlikely to be materialized. We maintain that firms' accumulated knowledge can make them more prone to the accumulated knowledge trap before rather than after the dominant technology has emerged. We further hypothesize that prior exploratory experiences and suppliers' outsourced component knowledge can reduce firms' susceptibility to such a knowledge trap before the dominant technology emergence, but their moderating roles fade away after the dominant technology emergence. Data from the U.S. Hybrid Electric Vehicle drivetrain market support our hypotheses. Our findings enrich the current literatures on the behavioral theory of the firm and technological evolution while reconciling the contrarian views in the innovation literature.