1. 监管可解释人工智能（XAI）可能伤害消费者

原标题：Regulating Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) May Harm Consumers

期刊：Marketing Science

作者：Kannan Srinivasan, Nikhil Malik, Behnam Mohammadi, Tim Derdenger

出版时间：2024-11-20

DOI：10.1287/mksc.2022.0396

摘要：

最新的人工智能（AI）算法缺乏可解释性。可解释人工智能（XAI）旨在通过向客户解释AI决策来解决这一问题。虽然人们普遍认为完全透明的XAI要求增强了消费者剩余，但我们的论文对这一观点提出了挑战。我们提出了一个博弈论模型，其中决策者在具有异质客户偏好的双寡头市场中最大化消费者剩余。我们的模型集成了AI精确度、解释深度和方法。我们发现，在不受监管的情况下，部分解释可能是一种均衡。此外，我们确定了客户和公司对完整解释的愿望不一致的场景。在这些情况下，监管完整的解释可能不是社会最优的，可能会恶化企业和消费者的结果。灵活的XAI政策表现优于完全透明和不受监管的极端。

Abstract: 

The most recent artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms lack interpretability. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) aims to address this by explaining AI decisions to customers. Although it is commonly believed that the requirement of fully transparent XAI enhances consumer surplus, our paper challenges this view. We present a game-theoretic model where a policymaker maximizes consumer surplus in a duopoly market with heterogeneous customer preferences. Our model integrates AI accuracy, explanation depth, and method. We find that partial explanations can be an equilibrium in an unregulated setting. Furthermore, we identify scenarios where customers’ and firms’ desires for full explanation are misaligned. In these cases, regulating full explanations may not be socially optimal and could worsen the outcomes for firms and consumers. Flexible XAI policies outperform both full transparency and unregulated extremes.

2. 广告交易所应该补贴广告商获取目标数据吗？

原标题：Should Ad Exchanges Subsidize Advertisers to Acquire Targeting Data?

期刊：Information Systems Research

作者：Wangsheng Zhu, Shaojie Tang, Vijay Mookerjee

出版时间：2024-11-26

DOI：10.1287/isre.2023.0126

摘要：

每天都有大量在线印象通过实时拍卖出售，向消费者投放有针对性的广告。广告商利用数据了解用户偏好，为每个用户选择最合适的广告，这也有助于他们在广告拍卖中优化出价。虽然广告交易所可能会向广告商提供一些用户数据，但它们通常是有限的，广告商往往会从各种来源获取数据，以提高定位性能。此类数据的获取可以显著影响广告交易所的收入，从而促使广告交易所采取行动，降低广告商的数据获取成本，鼓励他们购买数据。此前的研究考察了广告交易所向广告商披露数据的影响，但很少关注广告交易所补贴广告商从第三方获取数据的影响。为了解决这一差距，我们提出了三个补贴框架，通过诱导更多广告商获取数据来增加广告交换收入：全部补贴（AS）、赢家补贴（WS）和输家补贴。采用程式化模型，分析补贴条款对平台净收入的影响。我们的研究结果显示，WS可以比AS更好或更差，这取决于数据获取的成本、其对广告选择的有利影响，以及印象值的分布。

Abstract: 

Large volumes of online impressions are sold daily via real-time auctions to deliver targeted advertisements to consumers. Advertisers use data to learn about user preferences and select the most appropriate ad for each user, which also helps them optimize their bids in an ad auction. Although ad exchanges may provide some user data to advertisers, they are usually limited, and advertisers often acquire data from various sources to improve targeting performance. The acquisition of such data can significantly influence the revenue of the ad exchange, which motivates ad exchanges to take actions that reduce advertisers’ data acquisition costs and encourage them to buy data. Previous studies have examined the impact of ad exchanges revealing their data to advertisers, but little attention has been paid to the impact of ad exchanges subsidizing advertisers to acquire data from third parties. To address this gap, we propose three subsidy frameworks to increase ad exchange revenue by inducing more advertisers to acquire data: all subsidized (AS), winner subsidized (WS), and loser subsidized. Using a stylized model, we analyze the impact of subsidy provisions on the platform’s net revenue. Our results show that WS can be better or worse than AS depending on the cost of data acquisition, its beneficial impact on ad selection, and the distribution of impression values.

3. 库存信息摩擦解释易腐食品价格刚性

原标题：Inventory Information Frictions Explain Price Rigidity in Perishable Groceries

期刊：Marketing Science

作者：Naveed Chehrazi, Ioannis Stamatopoulos, Robert Evan Sers

出版时间：2024-11-26

DOI：10.1287/mksc.2023.0473

摘要：

食品杂货零售商在没有对货架进行实物审核的情况下，无法进行基于库存的定价，因为他们的库存记录不准确、不完整。特别是库存数据不反映货架上的实际、实时数量，标准通用产品代码条码不含失效日期。我们认为，这些库存信息摩擦在解释易腐食品价格刚性方面比实物菜单成本更有力。我们分两步论证。首先，我们将库存缩减、产品质量恶化和菜单成本加入到[Gallego G，Van Ryzin G（1994）有限期随机需求库存的最优动态定价中。Management Sci.40（8）：999-1020]经典收益管理模型中，并推导出定价者可以和不能以实时库存信息为条件时该模型的最优定价策略。在该模型中，当定价经理也有实时库存信息时，将代表性产品的物理菜单成本降低90%，其价格更新频率至少比没有实时库存信息时高300%。其次，我们用两个行业试点的数据为我们的理论提供概念证明：一家英国杂货店安装了电子货架标签（ESLs）——这是一种降低实体菜单成本的技术，另一家欧盟杂货店同时安装了ESLs和扩展条形码——后者是一种减少库存信息摩擦的技术。与我们的理论一致，技术升级使第一次试点价格更新频率提高54%，第二次试点价格更新频率提高853%。我们的理论可以解释易腐食品普遍缺乏动态定价，这对利润、消费者剩余和食品浪费都有重大影响。

Abstract: 

Grocery retailers cannot engage in inventory-based pricing without physically auditing their shelves because their inventory records are inaccurate and incomplete. In particular, inventory data do not reflect actual, real-time quantity on the shelf, and standard Universal Product Code barcodes do not contain expiration dates. We argue that these inventory information frictions are much more powerful in explaining price rigidity in perishable groceries than physical menu costs are. We build our argument in two steps. First, we add inventory shrink, deteriorating product quality, and menu costs to [Gallego G, Van Ryzin G (1994) Optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand over finite horizons. Management Sci. 40(8):999–1020] classic revenue-management model, and we derive the model’s optimal pricing policy when the price setter can and cannot condition on real-time inventory information. Within the model, reducing a representative product’s physical menu cost by 90% increases its price-updating frequency by at least 300% more when pricing managers also have real-time inventory information than when they do not. Second, we provide proof of concept for our theory with data from two industry pilots: a UK grocery store that installed electronic shelf labels (ESLs)—a technology that reduces physical menu costs—and an EU grocery store that installed both ESLs and expanded barcodes—the latter being a technology that reduces inventory information frictions. Consistent with our theory, the technology upgrade increased price-updating frequency by 54% in the first pilot and by 853% in the second pilot. Our theory can explain the lack of widespread dynamic pricing of perishable groceries, which has significant consequences for profits, consumer surplus, and food waste.

4. 一个理解多点归因中移除效应的图形点过程框架

原标题：A Graphical Point Process Framework for Understanding Removal Effects in Multi-Touch Attribution

期刊：Management Science

作者：James W. Snyder,Jr., Lingzhou Xue, Qian Chen, Amirhossein Meisami, Arava Sai Kumar, Jun Tao

出版时间：2024-12-11

DOI：10.1287/mnsc.2023.00457

摘要：

营销人员依靠各种在线广告渠道接触客户，对多点触控归因越来越感兴趣，多点触控归因评估每个触控点对转化的贡献。然而，随着营销渠道和接触点数量的增加，归因挑战变得更加复杂，因为渠道内部和跨渠道的不同接触点之间存在复杂的相互作用。本文利用客户路径来购买数据，通过开发一个新的图形化点流程框架来研究各种接触点之间的关系结构，来应对这一挑战。基于这个框架，我们提出了图形化归因方法，将归因得分分配给每个客户的购买路径的各个接触点或对应渠道。这些分数是使用移除效应的概率定义计算的。我们通过广泛的仿真研究和一个真实的归因应用，对提出的方法进行了评估，并将其性能与常用的归因模型进行了比较。

Abstract: 

Marketers rely on various online advertising channels to reach customers and are increasingly interested in multi-touch attribution, which evaluates the contribution of each touchpoint to a conversion. However, as the numbers of marketing channels and touchpoints increase, the attribution challenge becomes more intricate because of the complex interplay among different touchpoints within and across channels. Utilizing customer path-to-purchase data, this article addresses this challenge by developing a novel graphical point process framework to investigate the relational structure among various touchpoints. Based on this framework, we propose graphical attribution methods that allocate attribution scores to individual touchpoints or corresponding channels for each customer’s path to purchase. These scores are calculated using a probabilistic definition of removal effects. We evaluate the proposed methods and compare their performance with commonly used attribution models through extensive simulation studies and a real-world attribution application.

5. 挺过经济低迷：经营弹性、生产力、股价暴跌

原标题：Survive the economic downturn: Operating flexibility, productivity, and stock crash

期刊：Journal of Operations Management

作者：Fangming Xu, Yang Li, Tuan Ho, Xiaojun Wang

出版时间：2024-12-15

摘要：

运营灵活性通过使企业能够迅速降低与非生产性资源相关的运营成本，在充满挑战的时期支持企业的韧性战略。我们采用实物期权模型将这种洞见形式化。我们的经验性基础分析激发了一种企业层面的低规模运营灵活性代理（FLEX），它有效地捕捉了企业运营不同背景下的调整摩擦。利用1961年至2020年的美国数据，我们发现经营灵活性降低了股价暴跌的风险，尤其是在经济衰退期间。与亏损缩减机制一致，对于生产率/盈利能力较低或经营杠杆较高的公司，经营弹性效应更为显著，在更长、更严重的衰退期间进一步放大。经理们可能会利用我们久经考验的经营灵活性实证指标，来指导他们构建更具韧性的经营结构的努力。

Abstract: 

Operating flexibility enables firms to promptly curtail further losses during challenging times, thereby reducing their risk of stock price crashes. We formalize this insight by studying a real-options asset-pricing model. Consistent with the loss-curtailment mechanism, the results from our empirically grounding analytics reveal that operating flexibility mitigates crash risk, especially during periods of recession. Moreover, the effect is more pronounced for firms with lower productivity, lower profitability, or higher operating leverage. Using US data between 1961 and 2020, we document a relationship between firms’ ability to downsize operations and firm performance that varies in economically sensible ways: a negative correlation exists between the operation downscale flexibility and firm stock price crash risk, and this relation is more significant during the longer and severer recessions.

6. 什么是不归路？对宽松退货政策的限制性修改以及消费者对此的反应

原标题：The point of no return? Restrictive changes to lenient return policies and consumer reactions to them

期刊：Journal of Operations Management

作者：Michael Ketzenberg, Huseyn Abdulla, James D. Abbey, Gregory R. Heim

出版时间：2024-12-15

DOI：10.1002/joom.1346

摘要：

零售商在维持与限制长期以来的宽松退货政策方面面临着一个具有挑战性的权衡。一方面，宽松的退货政策已经成为零售商价值主张的重要组成部分，对刺激消费者购买起到了显著作用。另一方面，宽松的退货政策增加了产品退货量，损害盈利能力。基于观察到长期以来宽松退货政策限制性变化的增加，我们调查了消费者对此类变化的反应及其管理影响。通过对多元消费者样本的一系列实验，我们发现，缩短退货时间窗口或引入补货费用等限制性变化，降低了消费者对零售商的信任，导致购买降低、正面口碑和忠诚度意向。我们还发现，以传达限制性变化的理由的形式提供管理透明度，可以减弱消费者对此类变化的负面反应。此外，强调处理回报的成本，而不是指责机会主义和滥用回报的理由同样有效。我们的发现有助于不断增长的消费者退货政策设计学术文献，并为零售经理提供可操作的见解。

Abstract: 

Retailers face a challenging trade-off in maintaining versus restricting long-established lenient return policies. On the one hand, lenient return policies have become an important part of retailers' value propositions and play a significant role in stimulating consumer purchases. On the other hand, lenient return policies increase the volume of product returns, which hurts profitability. Motivated by observing an increase in restrictive changes to long-established lenient return policies, we investigate consumer reactions to such changes and their managerial implications. Through a series of experiments with diverse consumer samples, we find that restrictive changes, such as shortening return time windows or introducing restocking fees, decrease consumer trust in retailers and lead to lowered purchase, positive word-of-mouth, and loyalty intentions. We also find that providing managerial transparency, in the form of communicating the rationale for restrictive changes, can attenuate the negative consumer reactions to such changes. Moreover, rationales that emphasize the cost of handling returns versus blaming opportunistic and abusive returners are similarly effective. Our findings contribute to the growing academic literature on consumer return policy design and provide actionable insights to retail managers.

7. 消费者搜索与产品线长度：消费品契合度分布的作用

原标题：Consumer Search and Product Line Length: The Role of the Consumer-Product Fit Distribution

期刊：Management Science

作者：Mohammad Zia, Dmitri Kuksov

出版时间：2024-12-18

DOI：10.1287/mksc.2023.0462

摘要：

企业间更激烈的消费者搜索可能会导致更强的价格竞争，以及客户和产品之间更好的匹配。我们发现，这些力量的净结果可能导致产品线更短或更长，价格和利润更高或更低，具体取决于产品估值在消费者中的分布。在完全市场参与/覆盖和多家公司的情况下，我们提供了一个简单的价值分布函数（并讨论其与风险率的关系），可以指导管理者理解消费者搜索成本对公司产品线长度的定向影响。如果价值分布具有非递增的风险率（如指数分布或帕累托分布），但在正态分布、逻辑分布或Gumbel最小分布下，搜索成本较低会导致产品线更长。Gumbel Maximum是导致净零效应的临界情况。在均匀分布下，价格和产品线在搜索成本中呈倒U形。我们分别考虑了消费者市场参与决策对企业产品线战略的影响。

Abstract: 

More intense consumer search across firms may lead to both stronger price competition and a better match between customers and products. We show that the net result of these forces may lead to either shorter or longer product lines and higher or lower prices and profits depending on the distribution of product valuations across consumers. In the case of full market participation/coverage and many firms, we provide a simple function of value distribution (and discuss its relation to the hazard rate) that can guide managers in understanding the directional impact of consumer search costs on firms’ product line length. Lower search costs lead to longer product lines if the value distribution has a nonincreasing hazard rate (e.g., Exponential or Pareto distributions) but are a force toward shorter product lines under Normal, Logistic, or Gumbel-Minimum distributions. Gumbel-Maximum is the borderline case resulting in a net zero effect. Under Uniform distribution, prices and product lines are inverted-U shaped in the search costs. We separately consider the implications of consumers’ market participation decisions for firms’ product line strategy.